Hate to Say I Told You So

But I did tell you so.

She didn't drool on herself, so folks are calling it a win. Never mind that she didn't actually answer any questions, and couldn't go off script to answer any of Senator Biden's attacks on McCain. I believe that Nate at fivethirtyeight put it best though: "To be completely frank if that were anyone other than Sarah Palin on stage, this would be regarded as a blowout..."

Mr. Biden I thought played it perfectly: there was nothing to gain by attacking Ms. Palin directly. I'm sure she was waiting the whole night with some well-crafted comeback designed to make her look like the plucky female victim of the big male bully. By keeping the attacks on McCain and on policy, he kept her on shaky ground the whole night. She could only fall back on her talking points, even after they'd been debunked.

Four highlights for me:

• "The past is prolog" A perfect reposte to Ms. Palin's woefully ignorant complaint about Obama's "looking backward."
• "I haven't heard how McCain will differ from Bush," the perfect response to her whine about his continued dissection of the Bush regime. Made all the better because she had no response to that.
• The awesome dismantling of the "maverick" theme. Only Mr. Biden could have done that, and I thought waiting until the end of the debate, after Ms. Palin had said maverick about 130 times, was smart.
• The momentary deer-in-headlights look on Ms. Palin's face when asked about the possible use of nuclear weapons.

The real loser last night was Gwen Ifill. To some extent you can blame the format, but she never pushed for answers to her questions, and then cut it off anytime there was something akin to a discussion going on. She never got back to the education issue, even though it was clear that both candidates wanted to talk about it, and I believe most Americans wanted to hear about it.

And how could she let Governor Palin get away with "I'm not going to answer your questions, I'm going to talk to the American people..."? All Ms. Ifill had to do at that point is say, "well, you agreed to these rules, if you don't want to follow them, neither should I," and then let a real debate fly.

My Prediction for the Debate

A lot of folks are looking forward to tonight's VP debate. Most are predicting a complete train wreck, and gleefully predicting that Senator Biden will wipe the floor with Governor Palin. While I am certainly no fan of Ms. Palin's, and I do believe that she is woefully under-qualified for the vice-presidency, I think she'll do much better at the debate than people expect.

There's a few reasons for this:

• Lowered Expectations. At this point, people are almost expecting her to wet herself and cry. If she manages to stay upright the whole time, and avoids slurring her speech, it will be seen as a miracle.
• The Debate Format. This format is not a free exchange of ideas. Instead it's a series of very short (90 seconds) speeches. It's perfect for her: she just has to say her well-rehearsed lines, which will no doubt include tasty sound bites and attacks on Obama. She doesn't have to go toe-to-toe with Senator Biden.
• Past Performance. She's debated before, and did a creditable job of it. She certainly didn't set the world on fire, but she managed to deliver her vague talking points without putting her foot in her mouth. That's all that's required at this debate (see "The Debate Format"). Remember from the convention: she knows how to give a speech.

Tomorrow morning's commentors are all going to be talking about how well she did at the debate, compared to her expectations. She's not going to electrify anyone who isn't already firmly behind her. She's not going to assuage anyone who thinks she's not qualified to be "one heartbeat away" from the presidency. But if you're looking forward to a meltdown on stage tonight, you'll be sadly disappointed.