My Prediction for the Debate

A lot of folks are looking forward to tonight's VP debate. Most are predicting a complete train wreck, and gleefully predicting that Senator Biden will wipe the floor with Governor Palin. While I am certainly no fan of Ms. Palin's, and I do believe that she is woefully under-qualified for the vice-presidency, I think she'll do much better at the debate than people expect.

There's a few reasons for this:

• Lowered Expectations. At this point, people are almost expecting her to wet herself and cry. If she manages to stay upright the whole time, and avoids slurring her speech, it will be seen as a miracle.
• The Debate Format. This format is not a free exchange of ideas. Instead it's a series of very short (90 seconds) speeches. It's perfect for her: she just has to say her well-rehearsed lines, which will no doubt include tasty sound bites and attacks on Obama. She doesn't have to go toe-to-toe with Senator Biden.
• Past Performance. She's debated before, and did a creditable job of it. She certainly didn't set the world on fire, but she managed to deliver her vague talking points without putting her foot in her mouth. That's all that's required at this debate (see "The Debate Format"). Remember from the convention: she knows how to give a speech.

Tomorrow morning's commentors are all going to be talking about how well she did at the debate, compared to her expectations. She's not going to electrify anyone who isn't already firmly behind her. She's not going to assuage anyone who thinks she's not qualified to be "one heartbeat away" from the presidency. But if you're looking forward to a meltdown on stage tonight, you'll be sadly disappointed.